As you obviously know, the Writers Strike started this week. And it looks like it’s going to be a long, hard slog that may not be resolved for months — maybe not even until the Actors and Directors contracts are up next June. That’s a long time, and while there are any number of articles discussing the anticipated consequences of the strike, what about the unanticipated consequences?

By definition, of course, those are impossible to predict. Which is why I’m going to predict them. So, without any further ado, here are six unanticipated consequences of the writers strike.

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I know, I know, you’re sick of hearing about the looming Writers Guild of America strike. Well, it’s looming no more. It’s here, and, as you know, the first victims will be shows such as “Late Night with David Letterman”, “The Daily Show”, and even “The Colbert Report”. While some of those shows might stand up to the scrutiny of reruns, I’m guessing there will be a lot of audience loss — though this might very well be a boon for HGTV.

It’s my job to think about the future and writing. Okay, fine, nobody gave me this job; I appropriated it. It’s not like there’s a paid position out there called “Thinker About Future and Writing” anyway. Oh, if there were, I’d find the resume I last updated a decade ago.

So here are today’s thoughts on the issue. This strike is about ongoing compensation for work performed. In the majority of cases, when authors sign a contract with a publisher, they license specific distribution rights for their work for a certain period of time. Depending on the contract, the specific rights and length of time varies. Then there’s the whole of issue of “in print” — a contractually squishy point that some publishers use to retain distribution rights despite the lack of serious exploitation.
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Unless a miracle happened over the weekend and I missed it, there’s a good chance that the writers in Hollywood are going to strike. As you know, the major issue on the table between the producers (the major studios and networks) and the writers relates to residuals for new media. One side says there’s no way to predict the future; the other side says “Remember the DVD!”

As a rallying cry, that’s not so bad.

New media is one of those fuzzy concepts — on the surface, it means any means of distribution not considered “traditional”, i.e, television or video. More specifically, it means distribution to your mobile phone or home computer. But it breaks down even further, and it’s helpful to understand the different models currently being contemplated. Once you understand those, you’ll see that “new media” isn’t so much a revolution as it is a way to expand the current distribution process.

For the sake of ease, I’m going to correlate the “new” to the standard terms used by the industry. Like I said, the basics aren’t all that different.
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I’m going to readily admit that, like the High School Musical phenomenon, the whole Hannah Montana craze is purely academic to me. While I’ve been living my blissful life, it turns out that the pre-teen (tween?) set has done what the pre-teen set has always done: created its own star system.

In the normal scheme of things, the entire Miley Cyrus (the daughter of Billy Ray Cyrus — why do I know this stuff?) thing should pass me by. Like most adults, my exposure should be limited to reading gossip magazines at the gym while I’m on the treadmill. One must maintain a certain level of cultural literacy; I’ve come to peace with this.
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It is amusing to me that the recording industry has celebrated its first “victory” when it comes to prosecuting piracy. Last week, Jammie Thomas was ordered to pay $222,000 for illegal downloading of music. This amount is approximately ten times the median income for her community. I’m guessing the industry won’t see a dime — and I’m guessing the verdict won’t change the facts on the ground.

It’s a pretty safe bet that one of the biggest contributors to piracy is the industry itself. If you live in certain cities, you know that promo copies of CDs show up in used record stores long before the release date. All those freebies are pretty much turned over for better product or cash. And disks get passed hand to hand in hopes that “buzz” will be built for an upcoming release.

Mostly this doesn’t happen because most music that gets released on major record labels isn’t buzz-worthy. That’s another problem for another day.
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So it follows the course of human events that popular (and not-so-popular) novels are made into movies (prompting the ever-after statement, “The book was better.”). Once upon a time, books and movies, rightly, occupied different spheres. How would they meet? It’s not like they sold books in movie theaters or screened films in bookstores.

Ah, to return to those innocent times. The joy…

Seriously gang, it’s 2007. Nearly 2008. A new age has dawned and all that. So it makes perfect sense that one key way to promote books-made-into-movies is to, well, you know, work both sides of the media spectrum. Cross-promote, build on the audience of one for the other. Use modern technology the way the Internet gods intended it.
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I admit it — I’m still way excited about the new iPods. Not only for the usual selfish reasons but also because I see them as the dawning of a new age. Specifically, the age of free, ubiquitous WiFi and — yes — better short-form video.

Let’s start with the first. There has a been an ongoing struggle when it comes to wireless. On one side, there are those who want WiFi to be free. Or, if not free, extremely low cost. Some cities, for example, are trying to blanket their communities in wireless, treating it as a low-fee utility. Think of it like electricity, only, well, better.
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Will all due apologies to the Fresh Prince, networks executives just don’t understand. Or, rather, NBC executive just don’t understand. This past week, we learned that negotiations between Apple and NBC broke down because NBC wants to charge $5.00 an episode for television shows sold via iTunes while Apple, understandably, wants to charge less.

Rather than lure consumers in with a partial-season offering of NBC programming, Apple will not sell any NBC shows this fall (the deal was set to end in December anyway). First, a little bit of math. Assuming a 24-episode season, regular viewers will be paying approximately $50 for the season at $1.99; NBC wants those viewers to pay in the neighborhood of $120 for that same programming. You know, that’s a lot of money, especially considering that the cost of production is largely subsidized by commercial advertisers during the first broadcast run.
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As eyeballs and earlobes move away from traditional media, it will the challenge to advertisers to move to where the body parts are. After decades of selling to a relative few number of media outlets, advertisers will be chasing down consumers all over the web and the world.

This will lead to a serious challenge as the places where the kids — and let’s be honest, advertisers remain stubbornly stuck in a world-view where only kids have cash for discretionary spending — hang out are not necessarily as family friendly or wholesome as advertisers prefer. When you’re beholden to shareholders, you cannot, for example, advertise on a site that extols the virtue of pot smoking. Even if the audience captured (and retained) by that site represents the nadir of marketing goals that can be achieved.

This is the problem with MySpace, Facebook, and just about every blog worth noting. In the past, advertisers had sufficient clout to, if necessary, control the message. Television networks were more likely to bow to advertisers pressure than politicians spouting off about “family values”. If you couldn’t sell the spot, then you might consider changing the content.
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Nothing says the dog days of summer like the first Christmas display of the season. Costco is already gearing up for the holiday season — my first glimpse of Santa-mania came in the form of a ribbon display. Presumably, due to extensive market research, someone knows that the first thing consumers purchase for the impending holidays is ribbon to tie around the merrily wrapped packages.

You have wonder, if only a little bit.

The other big sign of the upcoming season comes in the forms of headlines: “Consumers Urged to Pick New DVD Format” or “Shoppers to choose which high-def DVD format lives”. Makes you feel both helpless and powerful, doesn’t it?
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